Eurogroup likely to grant Italy’s request to use the investment clause

The Eurogroup meeting will be entirely dedicated to the Draft Budgetary Plans for 2016, following their assessment by the EU Commission. The EU ministers of finance are likely to agree with the EC that 1) of the countries under the excessive deficit procedure, France, Ireland and Slovenia are broadly compliant (meaning that additional measures will be needed during the respective parliament votes), while Spain is at risk of non-compliance and hence could face sanctions and 2) of the countries subject to the preventive arm, Belgium, Latvia, Malta and Finland are broadly compliant, while Austria and Lithuania are at risk of noncompliance.

The discussion will mostly focus on Portugal, which hasn't submitted its budget, and Italy. Indeed, the EU leaders are expected to decide whether the 0.3% of GDP that the Italian government wishes to use as part of the investment clause of the Fiscal Compact (which allows exemption of some investment spending from inclusion in the structural deficit) and the 0.1% extra from the reform clause can be granted. 

If so, Italy would be in the 'broadly compliant' category and no longer at risk of non-compliance. Note that the decision to consider costs related to the refugee crisis (and security spending in France and probably elsewhere) as being due to exceptional circumstances is also expected to be discussed during the meeting.