Euro-area manufacturing PMI: Preview

Societe Generale notes its forecast on Euro-aread PMI as follows:

• We expect the euro-area manufacturing PMI to increase from 51 to 51.5 in March. 
  
  
• Conversely, the PMI for the services sector should decrease from 53.7 to 52.9 in March. This would mainly stem from a catch-up effect after the significant and unexpected rise recorded last month(from 52.7 to 53.7). 
  
  
• Historically, such PMI levels (both for the manufacturing and the services sector) have been consistent with GDP growth close to 0.3% qoq, slightly below our forecast of 0.4% qoq in Q1 2015. We thus anticipate additional improvements in the coming months. 
  
  
• Looking at the regional breakdown, the French manufacturing PMI should increase significantly from 47.6 to 49.0 in March while the PMI for the services sector is expected to decrease from 53.4 to 51.0. 
  
  
• Both will largely be due to the catch-up effect after the unexpected and unexplained figures recorded in February.