Daily outlook for UAH: Commerzbank

Quotes from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets:

-RUB, UAH: The political situation is very blurred, which is risking to hit both currencies even more. Foreign Ministers of the Normandy Group met in Paris yesterday with no real result, while separatist forces in eastern Ukraine are stating that they are withdrawing heavy weapons, in line with the Minsk accord.

-Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is sending military staff to advise and train Ukrainian government forces, which is likely to complicate matters further. And, at the same time, Ukrainian authorities are leaving it up to the market to decide what happens with both the UAH and government bonds.

-That, in turn, is leading to more speculation about a substantial restructuring or even default on government debt. In the meantime, the central bank has announced restrictions on importers making it more difficult for them to make advance payments of more than USD 50,000 and banning advance FX payments in excess of USD 500,000 without a letter of credit confirmed by an investment-grade bank. We would expect more of these sort of measures if IMF support doesn't appear soon.