• We look for a fifth consecutive rise in the German IFO business survey to 107.4 in March, slightly above the market consensus forecast of 107.3. This would be the highest level for the headline index in eight months and would provide further evidence that the outlook for the euro area economy is improving, helped by policy easing, the weaker euro exchange rate and the boost to household incomes from the lower oil price. We see increases in both the current assessment and the expectations components, supporting the central forecast of a gradual acceleration in economic growth over the course of the year. Outstanding risks, however, remain including the sustainability of Greece's debts and tensions in Ukraine. France's Insee will also release its business confidence survey, where the headline indicator has remained unchanged at 94 in the past four months, though a small improvement to 95 is expected in March.
  
  
• Another modest improvement in UK mortgage approvals is expected in this morning's BBA numbers for February, supported by falling mortgage rates and stamp duty reforms. The consensus forecast is for a rise to 36,700, up from 36,400 in January. The more comprehensive Bank of England mortgage approvals figures will be released next week. Elsewhere, US durable goods orders for February will be scrutinised for the potential impact of the appreciation of the dollar in recent months.