Daily Economic Outlook: 20th August, 2015

US data this afternoon include July existing home sales and the Conference Board's leading index. But the highlight will be the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey for August. The Empire manufacturing survey for August, which covers New York State and was released on Monday, posted a seemingly anomalous decline. Markets will be searching for reassurance from today's geographically broader measure of business sentiment that US growth prospects remain solid. Lloyds Bank anticipates a rise in the index from 5.7 in July to 8.0 in August.

July retail sales data form the key domestic release today. Headline volumes ended Q2 on a softer-than-expected note with a -0.2% m/m print in June. But the underlying pace of growth remained solid with a 0.7% rise over the quarter, which was just a little softer than the 0.9% Q1 print. 

The July survey evidence points to a further easing of sales in this morning's release. In particular, the CBI reported sales balance fell to 21 from 29. Nonetheless, rising real earnings and strong consumer sentiment along with an expected rebound from June's soft outturn and Amazon's July 15 Prime Day sales promotion underpin the expectation of a 0.5% pickup in both headline and underlying (ex-automobile fuels) volumes, says Lloyds Bank.