Chinese exports growth to have rebounded in December, industrial output likely grew

The Chinese economic activities are likely to have stabilized slightly in December, according to a DBS Bank research report. The NBS Manufacturing PMI index remained in the expansion zone of 50.2 for two straight months. The exports data for the month of December is set to release.

Export growth is likely to have recovered to 1 percent on a year-on-year basis from a fall of 1.3 percent in November as additional tariff from the U.S. was on hold, said DBS Bank. Imports are also expected to have grown 6 percent from 0.3 percent due to recovery in both domestic and external demand.

Meanwhile, industrial production is likely to have grown 6.3 percent in December, a rise from 6.2 percent. Headline fixed asset investment growth is expected to have stayed at 5.2 percent after rounds of liquidity injection through MLFs. However, retail sales growth is likely to have decelerated to 7.8 percent from 8 percent because of the relatively high unemployment rate of 5.1 percent.

“The GDP growth of 4Q is therefore forecasted to drop orderly to 5.8 percent in 4Q19 from 6.0 percent in 3Q19, and conclude the year at 6.1 percent”, added DBS Bank.