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Canadian existing home sales fall again in November

Canadian existing home sales dropped sequentially in November, falling for the third consecutive month. Sales dropped 2.3 percent. Sales were lower in over half of local markets, with considerable falls in Vancouver, Saskatoon, the GTA, Hamilton, Moncton and Halifax. On the other hand, sales were up in Victoria, Regina, Winnipeg, Kitchener-Waterloo, Montreal and Fredericton.

In spite of the negative headlines surrounding the oil and gas sector, sales rose 3.4 percent in Alberta as a surge in Edmonton more than countered a decline in Calgary. Still, provincial sales are on pace to fall for the fourth quarter overall.

National new listings dropped 3.3 percent in the month, with marked declines recorded in Vancouver, Ottawa, and Hamilton. With new listings declining more than sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened a bit to 54.8 – the 10th straight month in balanced territory. Province wise, ratios were highest in New Brunswick, PEI and Quebec. Meanwhile, markets continued to be oversupplied in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador. In B.C., the ratio was almost the same. One the contrary, the ratio rose to 58.2 in Ontario, with conditions much tighter outside of the GTA.

The average home price fell for the second consecutive month in November, while also heading lower on a year-on-year basis.

Home sales have evidently lost some momentum, with November’s fall marking the third consecutive setback. However, as most markets throughout the nation remain balanced, price growth is contained, noted TD Economics in a research report.

November’s fall in sales will be a drag on the fourth quarter residential investment. Nevertheless, other indicators are painting a brighter picture, with housing starts climbing and residential building permit issuance remaining strong.

“Looking ahead to next year, firm population growth coupled with on-going job gains should push sales higher relative to 2018. Still, only a modest gain is expected, as rising interest rates take their toll”, added TD Economics.

At 18:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Canadian Dollar was slightly bearish at -64.54, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was slightly bearish at -53.7129. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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