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TD Economics notes in a report as follows:
- As crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, the knock-on effects of their sharp decline since last autumn on the real economy and job market are expected to be felt for the next few quarters. The channels by which lower oil prices are likely to weigh on the Canadian economy include softer corporate profits and business investment, which should inevitably spill over to households.
- Fortunately, there will be offsets in the form of ultra-low interest rates, a weaker Canadian dollar, resilient growth in the key U.S. export market and energy savings to consumers. More specifically, we are expecting Canadian households will save up to $800, on average, at the pumps in 2015, although as much as $600 of this saving will be needed to pay for the higher cost of imported consumer goods.
- All told, we are expecting that real GDP growth in Canada will come in around 2% in 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate could reach 7% by the end of this year, before falling back toward 6.7% by the end of 2016.
- When this softer output growth is combined with lower than expected consumer and trade prices, income growth in Canada is also forecast to be weak in 2015. This will weigh on government coffers, particularly those of the federal government and governments in oil-rich provinces. Consequently, some governments have already announced their intention to pull back on planned spending.
- With the Canadian economy subject to these cross-currents, and little new data pointing to a broad departure from the Bank of Canada's most recent forecast, we expect that the Bank will keep interest rates on hold until the end of 2016. This is good news for the Canadian housing market and households more broadly.
