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Brazil's export gains could help investment bottom out, not recover

On balance, therefore, Brazil's recent export gains are not expected to be strong enough to initiate a strong investment cycle that could pull growth back up towards potential any time soon. Moreover, there are several domestic constraints in play. 

"Having said that, the currency depreciation is indeed playing a role in shaping at least a moderate recovery over the medium term. Further depreciation of the BRL could strengthen this process while stronger trade gains will require an improvement in the global demand situation", says Societe Generale. 

Near-term trade and industrial production data could provide more of an indication on the timing of the trough in investment demand. However, it is unlikely to be enough to signal a strong recovery.

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