Market Roundup
•New Zealand Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.9% previous
•New Zealand Participation Rate (Q3) 71.20%, 71.50% forecast,71.70% previous
•New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q3) 4.8%, 5.0%forecast, 4.6% previous
• Australia AIG Construction Index (Oct) -40.9,-19.8 previous
• Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct) -19.7, -33.6 previous
• Japan Services PMI (Oct) 49.7, 49.3 forecast, 53.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:15 Spanish Services PMI (Oct)56.6 forecast,57.0 previous
•08:45 Italian Composite PMI (Oct) 49.7 previous
•08:45 Italian Services PMI (Oct) 50.3 forecast, 50.5 previous
•08:45 French S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 47.3, 48.6 previous
•08:45 French Services PMI (Oct) 48.3forecast, 49.6 previous
•08:55 German Composite PMI (Oct) 48.4 forecast, 47.5 previous
•08:55 German Services PMI (Oct) 51.4 forecast, 50.6 previous
•09:00 EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
•09:00 EU Services PMI (Oct) 51.2, 51.4 previous
•09:00 Construction PMI (Oct) 55.3, 57.2 previous
•09:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Sep) -3.5%, -2.3% previous
•09:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.5%, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined sharply against dollar on Wednesday as dollar rallied driven by growing bets that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election. Trump took an early lead over Democrat Kamala Harris in the hotly contested election as solid Republican-leaning states reported first, but the outcome stayed uncertain, with key battleground states unlikely to be called for hours - or even days. Trump has vowed to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and 60% duties on Chinese imports. In the run-up to the election, Trump said India charged high tariffs and that he would reciprocate if elected. The dollar index which measures the currency against six major peers including the euro and yen climbed 1.45% to 104.95.The euro dropped 1.54% to $1.0748. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0756(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0794(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0700(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0667 (June 26th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower against dollar on Wednesday as dollar gained as investors leaned towards Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election. Fox News projected that Trump won the U.S. presidency, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris in a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House. Other media outlets have yet to call the race. Traders are also awaiting the Fed's two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Thursday, and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further directions on interest rates.Markets broadly expect the Fed to announce a quarter-point rate cut this week after the bumper 50 bps reduction in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2903(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2952 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2856 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12803(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell sharply lower on Wednesday as the US dollar surged, with investors betting on a Donald Trump victory following early results in the highly contested U.S. election. Republican Trump won 15 states while Democrat Kamala Harris captured seven states and Washington, D.C., Edison Research projected, but critical battleground states were unlikely to be called for hours or even daysAnalysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, compared with Harris' centre-left policies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.65556(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.656(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6515 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday following former President Donald Trump's early lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the US presidential race. Markets seem to be front-running the possibility of a Republican sweep, such an outcome is far from certain and raises doubts about how much of Trump's tax cut plan will make it through Congress.U.S. budget deficits and government debt levels were largely projected to surge under either candidate in the election, according to several estimates, although Harris was expected to add less debt than Trump.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates reducing federal deficits, estimates Trump's spending plans would add $7.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.26(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.76(5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 151.47(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks slipped lower on Wednesday as investors wagered Republican Donald Trump could win the U.S. presidential election, though officially the race remained too early to call.
China A50 was down by 1.09%, South Korean KOSPI was down by 0.52%, while Hang Seng was up by 2.53%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were largely flat on Wednesday as investors keenly awaited the outcome of a tightly-contested U.S. presidential race.
Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $2,740.28 per ounce, as of 0545 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,790.15 last Thursday.U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,749.00.
Oil prices fell as much as 2% on Wednesday after two sessions of gains, as the dollar surged on projections that Republican Donald Trump had won the U.S. presidential election, and as U.S. crude stocks rose more than forecast.
Brent crude oil futures was down $1.17, or 1.5%, to trade at $74.36 per barrel at 0710 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.11, or 1.5%, to trade at $70.88 per barrel.
