Market Roundup
• U.S. economy created a record 4.8 million jobs in June
• US June Participation Rate 61.5%, 60.8% previous
• US June U6 Unemployment Rate18.0%, 21.2% previous
• US June Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) -1.2%, -0.7% forecast, -1.0% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 1,427K, 1,355K forecast, 1,480K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 19,290K, 19,000K forecast, 19,522K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 1,503.75K, 1,620.75K previous
• US Exports 144.51B, 151.28B previous
• US Imports 199.12B, 200.69B previous
• US June Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.0%, 5.3% forecast, 6.7% previous
• US May Trade -54.60B, -53.00B forecast, -49.40B previous
• US June Unemployment Rate 11.1%, 12.3% forecast,13.3% previous
• US June Manufacturing Payrolls 356K, 311K forecast, 225K previous
• Canada May Exports 34.61B, 33.60B forecast, 32.66B previous
• US June Private Nonfarm Payrolls 4,767K, 2,900K forecast, 3,094K previous
• US June Government Payrolls 33.0K, -585.0K previous
• US June Nonfarm Payrolls 4,800K, 3,000K forecast, 2,509K previous
• Canada May Imports 35.29B, 38.10B forecast, 35.91B previous
• US June Average Weekly Hours 34.5, 34.5 forecast, 34.7 previous
• Canada May Trade Balance -0.68B,-3.00B forecast, -3.25B previous
• Canada June RBC Manufacturing PMI 47.8, 40.6 previous
• 13:45 US June ISM NY Business Conditions 39.5%, 19.5% previous
• 13:45 US June ISM-New York Index 806.0, 811.3 previous
• 14:00 US Factory May Orders (MoM) 8.9% forecast, -13.0% previous
• 14:00 US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 15.3%, 15.5% previous
• 14:00 US May Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 2.6%,-8.5% previous
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 65B, 78B forecast, 120B previous
Looking ahead economic data (GMT)
• 22:30 Australia June AIG Construction Index 24.9 previous
•23:00 Australia Services PMI 53.2 forecast, 26.9 previous
• 0 0:30 Japan June Services PMI 42.3 forecast, 26.5 previous
• 01:30 Australia May 16.3% forecast, -17.7% previous
• 01:30 Australia May Imports (MoM) -10% previous
• 01:30 Australia May Trade Balance 9.000B forecast, 8.800B previous
• 01:30 Australia May Exports (MoM) -11% previous
• 01:45 China June Caixin Services PMI 55.0 previous
• 01:45 China June Chinese Composite PMI 53.4 previous
Looking ahead events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currencies summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday as U.S. dollar rose , regaining its safe-haven appeal, as investors focused on the resurgence of U.S. coronavirus cases and raised concerns the economy would give back the summer's employment gains. Earlier in the session, the dollar fell as risk appetite increased after data showing the world's largest economy defied expectations for a second month in a row, creating jobs in June at a far faster pace than market forecasts. Despite Thursday's rise, the greenback was on track to post losses for a second straight week against a basket of major currencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1300 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1354 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1213 (30 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1162 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the dollar gained after prospects for economic recovery improved after data showed the U.S. economy created record jobs in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million jobs in June, the Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment data showed, the most since the government began keeping records in 1939.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2528 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2600 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2414(11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2315 (50% fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showing a narrower-than-expected trade deficit supported hopes of economic recovery, with the loonie adding to this week's rally. Canada posted a trade deficit of C$677 million in May as exports jumped 6.7%, data from Statistics Canada showed. Analysts had forecast a deficit of C$3 billion. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3571 to the greenback, having traded in a range of 1.3560 to 1.3623. Since the start of the week it was up 0.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3625 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3726 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3471 (23.% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3401 (lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Thursday after data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 4.8 million jobs in June, the most since the government started keeping records in 1939. Payrolls rebounded 2.699 million in May. Economists polled had forecast payrolls increasing by 3 million jobs in June. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 11.1% last month from 13.3% in May. The U.S. currency had also been buffeted earlier in the global session by news a COVID-19 vaccine developed by German biotech firm BioNTech and U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer had shown potential in early-stage human trials. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.53 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.85 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.30 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at a one-week high on Thursday as hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and a better-than-expected rebound in U.S. hiring overshadowed concerns about surging coronavirus infections.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 2.84 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.49 percent.
Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with healthcare stocks providing the biggest boost after Joe Biden overtook Bernie Sanders to become the new front-runner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.36 percent, S&P 500 closed by 0.45 percent, Nasdaq ended up by 0.52% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields, which rose on Thursday after better-than-expected June jobs data, slipped later in the session ahead of a long holiday weekend, which could bring more troubling news in the battle against the coronavirus outbreak.
The benchmark 10-year yield, which had reached asession high of 0.724%, was last down 1.1 basis points at 0.6709%.
Commodities Recap
Gold reversed course and edged higher on Thursday as the dollar eased, though the metal traded below an eight-year peak hit in the last session as prospects for economic recovery improved after data showed the U.S. economy created record jobs in June.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,777.04 per ounce by 1:42 p.m. EDT (1742 GMT), holding close to the near eight-year high of $1,788.96 hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.6% at $1,790 per ounce.
Oil futures gained more than 2% on Thursday, supported by a drop in U.S. unemployment and a drawdown in crude inventories, but a resurgence in U.S. coronavirus infections fanned concerns that economic activity will weaken in coming weeks.
Brent crude futures settled at $43.14 a barrel, rising $1.11, or 2.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $40.65 a barrel, up 83 cents, or 2.1%.
