Market Roundup
•U.S. August retail sales unexpectedly rebound
•U.S. weekly jobless claims dip
• US Export Price Index (YoY) 10.8%, 13.1% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) 7.8%,8.8% previous
• US Aug Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% previous
• US Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Import Price Index (MoM) -1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
• US Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Sep Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index-9.9, 2.8 forecast, 6.2 previous
• US Sep Philly Fed Employment 12.0, 24.1 previous
• US Sep NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.50, -13.00 forecast, -31.30 previous
• US Aug Retail Sales (YoY) 9.10%, 10.28% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 213K, 226K forecast, 222K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,403K, 1,475K forecast, 1,473K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 224.00K,233.00K previous
•US Aug Capacity Utilization Rate 80.0%, 80.3% forecast, 80.3% previous
•US Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Aug Industrial Production (YoY) 3.68%, 3.90% previous
•US Jul Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4%, 0.4% previous
•US Jul Business Inventories (MoM) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Thursday as investors digested economic data that provided the Federal Reserve little reason to ease its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle. Economic data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August as Americans ramped up purchases of motor vehicles and dined out more while taking advantage of lower gasoline prices. But data for July was revised downward to show retail sales declining instead of flat as previously reported. Separately the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell for the week ended Sept. 10 to the lowest level since the end of May. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.091%, with the euro up 0.18% to $0.9995. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0001(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0100(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9956 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9882(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday, hovering near a 35-year low touched last week against the greenback as investors fret about the economic outlook and continue to favour the U.S. currency. Sterling has been one of the worst performing major currencies in 2022, hit by expectations of a long recession, stubbornly high inflation and political instability. New Prime Minister Liz Truss's plans to fund a mammoth energy support package by increasing borrowing have added to investor concerns about the long-term outlook for the British economy. The pound was down 0.04% against the dollar at $1.1460, just above last week's 35-year low of $1.1407. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1522(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1593(Sep 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1452(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1394 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest level in more than two months against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices tumbled and the prospect of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment. Wall Street's main indexes fell as a slew of economic data pointed to resilience in the U.S. economy which could keep the Federal Reserve on track for aggressive interest rate hikes. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3214 to the greenback , its weakest since July 14. Oil, one of Canada's major exports, was pressured by expectations of weaker demand. U.S. crude oil futures settled 3.8% lower at $85.10 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3263(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3303 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3202 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3158 (5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Thursday following data showing U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August. The dollar pared some gains following the data, which showed retail sales increased 0.3% last month, but demand for goods is cooling as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Economists polled had forecast sales would be unchanged. Many market participants believe that recent data including this week's surprise increase in consumer prices in August is likely to give the U.S. central bank enough reason to announce a third consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike next Wednesday. The dollar was up 0.2% against the yen at 143.30. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.70(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.63(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.80(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.44(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities gave up earlier gains to end lower on Thursday, with energy and technology shares declining the most, as worries about tighter monetary policy and geopolitical disruptions shook risk sentiment..
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.55 percent, and France’s CAC finished the down by 1.04 percent.
Wall Street indexes were firmly in the red after a choppy start to Thursday's session while bond yields rose as investors digested economic data that provided the Federal Reserve little reason to ease its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.56 percent, S&P 500 ended down 1.31 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.43 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the two-year hitting fresh 15-year highs, after data on retail sales and jobless claims showed a resilient economy that gives the Federal Reserve ample room to aggressively hike interest rates next week.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, a bellwether for rate expectations, initially pared gains after the data but surged 8.5 basis points on the day to 3.867%. The yield spiked immediately after the data to a new 15-year high of 3.879%.
The yield on benchmark 10-year notes was up 4.3 basis points to 3.455%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 1 basis points to 3.479%.
Commodities Recap
Oil futures fell over 3% to a one-week low on Thursday on a tentative agreement that would avert a U.S. rail strike, expectations for weaker global demand and continued U.S. dollar strength ahead of a potentially large interest rate increase.
Brent futures fell $3.26, or 3.5%, to settle at $90.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended $3.38, or 3.8%, lower at $85.10, the lowest closes for both benchmarks since Sept. 8.
Gold dropped to its lowest level since April 2020 on Thursday, hurt by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firm dollar, as bets of another hefty rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve eroded bullion's appeal.
Spot gold was last down 1.8% at $1,665.23 per ounce by 2:16 p.m. ET (1816 GMT), after falling more than 2% to $1,659.47 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 1.9% lower at $1,677.30.
