Market Roundup
• Canada Jan RMPI (YoY) 6.2% -0.7% previous
• Canada Jan IPPI (YoY) 4.0%, 1.8% previous
• Canada Jan RMPI (MoM) 5.7%, 3.5% previous
• US Jan Personal Income (MoM) 10.0%, 9.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US Jan Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 2.0%, -0.6% previous
• US Jan Personal Spending (MoM) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast ,-0.2% previous
• US Jan PCE price index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
• US Jan PCE Price index (YoY) 1.5, 1.3 previous
• US Jan Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast , 0.3% previous
• US Jan Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.5%, 1.4% forecast , 1.5% previous
• US Feb Chicago PMI 59.5, 61.1 forecast , 63.8 previous
• US Michigan Inflation Expectations 3.3%, 3.3% forecast , 3.0% previous
• US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.70%, 2.70% forecast , 2.70% previous
• US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.8,76.5, 79.0 previous
• US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 70.7, 69.8 forecast , 74.0 previous
• Canada Dec Budget Balance (YoY) -248.17B,-232.02B previous
• Canada Budget Balance-16.15B, -15.40B previous
• US Jan Dallas Fed PCE 1.90%, 1.90% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as rising inflation expectations triggered a sell off in euro . The rise in bond yields, spurred on by fiscal stimulus hopes in the United States and a post-pandemic economic rebound that could fuel inflation, has spilled over into the euro area. Policymakers rushed to dispel fears that they would tighten policy any time soon the European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated on Friday that changes in nominal interest rates had to be monitored closely. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2151(55DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2187(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2106(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2031 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a stronger dollar on Friday, retreating from a three-year high touched earlier this week, as a rout in global bond markets sent yields flying and hurt the pound, while the Bank of England warned of inflation risks. Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane warned on Friday of a risk that inflation will prove difficult to keep under control as the economy recovers from the pandemic. After rising above $1.42 for the first time in three years earlier this week, the pound fell to $1.3890 at 1059 GMT, its lowest since Feb. 18.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3953 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4059(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3877 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards at 1.3792 (61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar tumbled against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday as this week's spike in bond yields weighed on investor sentiment, with the loonie extending its pullback from a three-year high the day before. Oil prices settled 3.2% lower at $61.50 a barrel as forecasts called for crude supply to rise in response to prices climbing above pre-pandemic levels. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.9% lower at 1.2710 to the greenback, or 78.68 U.S. cents, its biggest decline since last October. It touched its weakest since Feb. 18 at 1.2729, while it was down 0.8% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2727(55DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2765 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2686 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.25744 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday following a spike in U.S. bond yields. The yen, which tends to weaken when U.S. yields rise, slid to a fresh six-month low versus the greenback. Government bonds, and particularly U.S. Treasuries, have become the focal point of markets globally, which have aggressively moved to price in earlier monetary tightening than signalled by the Federal Reserve and its peers. The yen's decline came even amid a sell-off in stocks, as the surge in yields fomented inflation worries. The yen and dollar are both traditional haven currencies. Strong resistance can be seen at 106.59(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.27 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 105.94 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks tumbled 1.5% on Friday, led by miners and technology stocks, as a jump in bond yields and concerns of lofty equity valuations hammered demand for riskier assets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 2.53 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down up by 1.40 percent.
U.S. stock index futures retreated on Friday as lofty tech stocks bled further amid elevated U.S. bond yields and prospects of a spike in inflation.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.60% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.35% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.44% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold tumbled 3% to an eight-month low on Friday en route to its worst month since November 2016 as a stronger dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields hammered non-yielding bullion’s appeal.
Spot gold was down 2.5% at $1,726.31 per ounce by 1:34 p.m. ET (1834 GMT), after touching $1,716.85, its lowest since June 2020. Bullion is down 6.4% so far this month. U.S. gold futures settled 2.6% lower at $1,728.80.
Oil prices fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar rose while forecasts called for crude supply to rise in response to prices climbing above pre-pandemic levels.
Brent crude futures for April, which expire on Friday, fell 74 cents, or 1.1%, to $66.14 a barrel by 12:45 EDT (17:45 GMT). The more actively traded May contract slipped by $1.08 to $65.03.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped $1.42, or 2.2%, to $62.11. The contract was still on track to be up 4.8% on the week.
