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America's Roundup: Dollar falls as jobs report disappoints, Wall Street tumbles, Gold hits five-month, Oil prices climb on OPEC-led cuts, but off session highs-December 8th, 2018

Market Roundup

• Fed policymakers signal turning point on U.S. rate-hike path.

• Fed’s Brainard expects solid U.S. growth next year but some tail winds are fading.

• Fed's Bullard says revisions to common monetary policy rules show federal funds rate already above neutral.

• Kudlow says expects Fed to pause 'for quite some time' after December hike –Bloomberg.

• OPEC, Russia agree to slash oil output despite Trump pressure.

• Merkel protege Kramp-Karrenbauer succeeds her as German CDU leader.

• US Nov Non-Farm Payrolls, 155k, 200k forecast, 250k previous, 237k revised.

• US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls, 27k, 20k forecast, 32k previous, 26k revised.

• US Nov Private Payrolls, 161k, 200k forecast, 246k previous, 251k revised.

• US Nov Unemployment Rate, 3.7%, 3.7% forecast 3.7% previous.

• US Nov Average Earnings MM, 0.2%, 0.3% forecast t, 0.2% previous, 0.1% revised.

• US Nov Average Earnings YY, 3.1%, 3.1% forecast 3.1% previous.

• US Dec U Mich Sentiment Prelim, 97.5, 97.0 forecast, 97.5 previous.

• US Oct Wholesale Sales MM, -0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous, 0.1% revised.

• CA Nov Unemployment Rate, 5.6%, 5.8% forecast 5.8% previous.

• CA Nov Full Time Employment Chng SA, 89.9k, 33.9k previous.

• CA Nov Participation Rate, 65.4%, 65.2% previous.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• Dec 8 N/A China Nov Exports YY, 10.0% forecast, 15.6% previous

• Dec 8 N/A China Nov Imports YY, 14.5% forecast, 21.4% previous

• Dec 8 N/A China Nov Trade Balance USD, 34.00 bln forecast, 34.02 bln previous

• Dec 9 01:30 China Nov PPI YY, 2.7% forecast, 3.3% previous

• Dec 9 01:30 China Nov CPI YY, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous

• Dec 9 01:30 China Nov CPI MM, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous-

• Dec 9 23:50 Japan Oct Current Account NSA JPY, 1,384.2 bln forecast, 1,821.6 bln previous

• Dec 9 23:50 Japan Q3 GDP Rev QQ Annualised, -1.9% forecast, -1.2% previous

• Dec 9 23:50 Japan Q3 GDP Revised QQ, -0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous

• Dec 9 23:50  Japan Q3 GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ, -1.6% forecast, -0.2% previous

• Dec 10 00:30 Australia Oct Housing Finance, 0.0% forecast, -1.0% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• Dec 10 07:00 Bank of Portugal Governor Carlos da Silva Costa to open an event on new risks and opportunities that digital transformation might add to financial institutions in Lisbon

• Dec 10 12:15 ECB Member of the Supervisory Board Ignazio Angeloni participates in a discussion at a roundtable organized by Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1304 levels and currently trading at 1.1408 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1416 and hit lows at 1.1372 levels. The euro rose higher against US dollar on Friday after data showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers than forecast in November, backing the view that U.S. growth is moderating and the Federal Reserve may stop raising rates sooner than previously thought. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent. Economists polled had forecast payrolls increasing by 200,000 jobs in November. Average hourly earnings rose six cents, or 0.2 percent in November after gaining 0.1 percent in October. That left the annual increase in wages at 3.1 percent, matching October's jump, which was the biggest gain since April 2009.Fed policymakers are still widely expected to raise interest rates again at their Dec. 18-19 meeting, but the focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.25 percent, with the euro up 0.35 percent to $1.1414

GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2657 levels and currently trading at 1.2745 levels. It reached session high at 1.2733 and dropped to session low at 1.2706 levels. Britain's pound declined against the dollar on Friday as British Prime Minister Theresa May pressed ahead with plans for a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal despite warnings it could topple her government. Sterling's near-term fate hangs on whether May can win a majority for her Brexit deal in a vote on Dec. 11 that will define Britain's departure from the European Union scheduled for March. The odds look stacked against her getting the deal through a deeply divided parliament. The Times newspaper reported on Thursday that senior ministers were urging May to delay the vote for fear of a rout but her spokesman has said it would go ahead as planned. A defeat on Tuesday could open up a series of different outcomes to Britain's departure from the EU each with its own impact on sterling ranging from leaving without the deal to holding a second referendum on membership. The pound was down 0.2 percent at $1.2745, near an 18-month low of $1.2659 hit on Wednesday. It also weakened 0.3 percent against the euro to 89.27 pence.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.3235 levels and is trading at 1.3310 levels. It has made session high at 1.3398 and lows at 1.3235 levels. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as higher oil prices and upbeat domestic jobs data bolstered expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada. Expectations for rate hikes had moderated this week after the Bank of Canada left rates on hold on Wednesday and fretted about the impact on the economy of a sharp drop in the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, since October. The Canadian economy added 94,100 jobs in November on higher full-time hiring, and the unemployment rate dipped to a new all-time low of 5.6 percent, Statistics Canada said. Economists had forecast a jobs gain of 11,000. Oil prices jumped as big Middle East producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce output to drain global fuel inventories and support the market. The Canadian dollar was last trading 0.6 percent higher at 1.3304 to the greenback.The currency, which Thursday hit its lowest in nearly 18 months at 1.3445, traded in a range of 1.3285 to 1.3400.

USD/JPY is supported around 112.00 levels and currently trading at 112.63 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 112.83 and made session lows at 112.53 levels. The dollar declined against Japanese yen on Friday after weaker-than-expected data on domestic jobs growth in November bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve may tap the brakes on raising interest rates sooner than previously thought. U.S. job growth slowed in November and monthly wages increased less than forecast, suggesting some moderation in economic activity that could support expectations of fewer interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in 2019. The labor market is considered near or at full employment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month, with construction companies hiring the fewest workers in eight months, likely because of unseasonably chilly temperatures. Data for September and October were revised to show 12,000 fewer jobs added than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 200,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate was unchanged at near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent as 133,000 people entered the labor force.

Equities Recap

European shares staged a small recovery on Friday snapping three days of heavy losses, but stocks notched up their worst week of losses in two months amid growing worries that the U.S.-China trade row may erupt again and slowing global economic growth.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.3 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.68 percent.

Wall Street's main indexes fell more than 2 percent on Friday, led lower by technology and healthcare shares, as investors digested renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and a turbulent week of trading neared an end.

Dow Jones closed down by 2.25 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 2.34 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 3.04 percent.

Treasuries Recap

The margin between short- and long-end U.S. Treasury yields grew on Friday as weaker-than-expected data on domestic jobs growth in November bolstered the view that the Federal Reserve may tap the brakes on raising interest rates sooner than previously thought.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down 2 basis points at 2.852 percent, wiping out an earlier 5-basis-point increase. On Thursday, it touched 2.826 percent, a three-month low.

The 10-year yield was on track to post its steepest drop since October 2015.The two-year yield fell 4 basis points to 2.715 percent.
Commodities Recap

Gold hit a five-month peak on Friday as the dollar slid following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which added to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may go slow on interest rate hikes next year.

Spot gold gained 0.8 percent to $1,247.47 per ounce at 1:46 p.m. EST (1846 GMT), having hit $1,247.30 per ounce earlier, its highest level since July 13.U.S. gold futures settled up 0.72 percent at 1,252.6 per ounce.

Oil prices ended more than 2 percent higher on Friday after OPEC members and allies like Russia agreed to reduce output to drain global fuel inventories and support the market, but the gains were capped by concerns that the cuts would not offset growing production.

Brent crude rose $1.61, or 2.7 percent, to settle at $61.67 a barrel. In early trading, the global benchmark had dropped below $60 when it looked as if the oil exporters might leave output targets unchanged. It then rallied to a session high of $63.73 on news of the agreement, before pulling back late in the session.

U.S. crude rose $1.12, or 2.2 percent, to $52.61 a barrel, after earlier reaching a session high of $54.22.
 

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June 26 15:30 UTC Released

BRForeign Exchange Flows

Actual

0.343 Bln USD

Forecast

Previous

2.761 Bln USD

June 26 14:30 UTC Released

USEIA Weekly Gasoline O/P

Actual

0.089 M

Forecast

Previous

0.147 M

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 748634748634m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 748634748634m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 736814736814m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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