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America's Roundup: Dollar drops after retail data suggests slowing U.S. economy, Wall Street ends mixed, Gold rises, Oil prices edge higher as Wall St recoups losses-February 15th, 2019

Market Roundup

• US Dec Retail Sales MM, -1.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous, 0.1% revised

• Top U.S. trade envoys to meet China's Xi, no decision on deadline extension

• More Brexit humiliation for May as parliament defeats her again

• US Congress poised to vote on border measure without Trump wall

• Atlanta Fed slashes U.S. Q4 2018 growth view to 1.5 pct

• US 9 Feb, w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 239k, 225k forecast, 234k previous, 235k revised

• US 9 Feb, w/e Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg, 231.75k, 224.75k forecast, 225.00k previous

• US 2 Feb, w/e Continued Jobless Claims, 1.773 mln, 1.740 mln forecast, 1.736 mln previous

• US Jan PPI Final Demand YY, 2.0%, 2.1% forecast, 2.5% previous

• US Jan PPI Final Demand MM, -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous, -0.1% revised

• US Nov Business Inventories MM, -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous

• Fed's Brainard says balance sheet trimming should end this year

• 'Black eye' for German economy as it flirts with recession

• CA Dec Manufacturing Sales MM, -1.3%, 0.2% forecast, -1.4% previous, -1.7% revised

• CA Dec New Housing Price Index, 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% revised

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 14 Feb 21:30 New Zealand Jan Manufacturing PMI, 55.1 previous

• 15 Feb 01:30 China Jan CPI MM, 0.5% forecast, 0.0% previous

• 15 Feb 01:30 China Jan CPI YY, 1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous

• 15 Feb 01:30 China Jan PPI YY, 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous

• 15 Feb 04:30 Japan Dec Industrial Output Rev, -0.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 13:00 ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure to participate in C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

• 14:55 Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic speaks on "Workforce Development" before the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama annual meeting, in Birmingham, Atlanta.

• 15:45 ECB board member Ignazio Angeloni to participate in a panel session titled "The Future of Banking: Will European Banks Survive?" at the Dolomites Winter Finance conference in Brunico-Bruneck, Italy.

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro recovered from three-month low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as improved Chinese trade data and hopes of progress in China-U.S. trade talks lifted risk sentiment. Risk appetite grew after China reported dollar-denominated exports rose 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier and imports dropped 1.5 percent.The euro was up 0.30 percent at $1.1294. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was down 0.4 percent, last at 97.17 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1310 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1386 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1249 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: British pound declined against the dollar on Thursday, after Prime Minister Theresa May lost a symbolic Brexit vote in parliament. The pound dropped to as low as $1.2798, down 0.4 percent on the day and its weakest since Jan. 15. It was the only loser among the major currencies on a day when risk appetite was firm across the board. The British currency was little moved after the result of the motion, which sought to reaffirm support for May's plan to seek changes to her deal, after earlier tumbling on media reports that the government would lose Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2861 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2962 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2755 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2665 (Jan 15th Low).

USD/CAD:The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest in nearly three weeks against the greenback on Thursday as oil prices fell and after domestic data showed a drop in factory sales that could crimp estimates for how much the economy grew in the fourth quarter. Canadian factory sales fell by 1.3 percent in December from November on lower petroleum and coal product sales, Statistics Canada said. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.2 percent. At (2053 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.2 percent lower at 1.3286 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3287 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3310 (23.6% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3268 (50% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3248 (61.8% retracement level).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against the yen on Thursday following a report that, U.S. retail sales recorded the biggest drop in more than nine years in December, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018.Thursday's data is supportive of the Federal Reserve's current inclination towards patience in its rate-hiking cycle. After four increases in 2018, market participants are anticipating the central bank will hold off on raises for the next one or two quarters.The dollar was 0.43 lower versus the Japanese yen at 110.51. Strong resistance can be seen at 111.16 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.70 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.48 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 109.65 (23.6% retracement level). 

Equities Recap

European shares gave up three-month highs on Thursday after a surprise sharp decline in U.S. retail sales pulled stocks lower in afternoon trading, spoiling an initially upbeat session that saw blue-chips such as Nestle shine on strong earnings.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.2 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.6 percent, and France’s CAC finished the down by 0.1 percent.

The S&P 500 and the Dow slipped while the Nasdaq posted a slim gain on Thursday as investors struggled to square grim retail sales data with hopes that high-level talks in Beijing could resolve the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.41 percent, S&P 500 ended down 0.27 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.09 percent.

Treasuries Recap

Treasury yields fell on Thursday after data showed that U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest drop in more than nine years in December, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018.

U.S. 10-year notes gained 13/32 in price to yield 2.661 percent, down from 2.706 percent on Wednesday. They are down from 3.261 percent in October.

The yields rose to one-week highs on Wednesday after data showed that core consumer price inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, gained 0.2 percent in January, easing some concerns about a drop in inflation.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar fell on weak economic data from the United States, which bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve would stick to its dovish stance on monetary policy.

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,312.17 per ounce as of EST (1917 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled down 0.1 percent at $1,313.9.

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday and Brent hit the highest level this year, but gains were capped after the steepest decline in U.S. retail spending since 2009 heightened investor fears of a global economic slowdown.

Brent futures ended the session up 96 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $64.57 a barrel, after hitting a 2019 high of $64.81, while U.S. crude rose 51 cents, or 0.95 percent, to $54.41 a barrel, down from a session high of $54.68.

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May 22 08:30 UTC Released

ZMBenchmark Interest Rate

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10.25 %

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9.75 %

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107.6 Index

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107 Index

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-1541 %

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