Market Roundup
•French Mar Government Budget Balance -52.8B forecast, -44.0B previous
•French Mar French Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Apr Composite PMI 54.1, 54.0 forecast, 52.8 previous
•UK Apr Services PMI 55.0,54.9 forecast, 53.1 previous
•EU Mar Unemployment Rate 6.5%,6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Private Nonfarm Payrolls 181K forecast,232K previous
•12:30 US Apr U6 Unemployment Rate 7.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Apr Participation Rate 62.7% previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.0% forecast,4.1% previous
•12:30 US Apr Nonfarm Payrolls 238K forecast,303K previous
•12:30 US Apr Government Payrolls 71.0K previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•12:30 US Apr Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast,0K previous
•12:30 US Apr Unemployment Rate 3.8% forecast,3.8% previous
•13:45 US Apr S&P Global Composite PMI 50.9 forecast,52.1 previous
•13:45 US Apr Services PMI 50.9 forecast,51.7 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.0 forecast,51.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 48.5 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 53.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 54.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 57.4 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 506 previous
•17:00 . U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 613 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday after European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras said he sees three rate cuts in 2024.Stournaras reportedly said in an interview that three rate cuts in 2024 is the more likely scenario after considering recent growth and inflation data. The ECB has all but promised to start lowering borrowing costs from their current, record highs in June but the path further ahead has become more uncertain in recent weeks.The euro ticked 0.18% higher to$1.0740, and was eyeing a weekly gain of nearly 0.46%, its largest since March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0757(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0819(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0676 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0646(May 1st low).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Friday as market awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data. U.S. non-farm payrolls are projected to have grown by 243,000 in the previous month, a slight decrease from the 303,000 jobs added in March. The unemployment rate is likely to remain stable at 3.8%, while the annual average earnings growth is expected to decrease to 4.0%. On the data front, British services companies reported the strongest upswing in activity in almost a year during Aprilhe S&P Global UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose in April to 55.0, its highest level since May 2023 and up from a preliminary reading of 54.9. Readings above 50 represent expansion. Sterling rose 0.15% to $1.2558 and was similarly set for its biggest weekly gain in two months, rising 0.46% this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2569 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2655(50 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited key U.S. non-farm payroll numbers that could shift bets on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates. U.S. non-farm payrolls are forecast to have risen 243,000 last month, only marginally cooler than the 303,000 added in March. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8%, while annual average earnings growth is seen cooling to 4.0%. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was last at 105.16, down slightly on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9132(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9184(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9069(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9008(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday as yen was helped by Japan's suspected intervention this week to pulled the currency away from 34-year lows. The yen rose to a three-week high of 152.75 per dollar during Asian trade and was set to clock a weekly gain of 3.19%, its largest since January 2023. It was last 0.26% higher on the day at 153.25 per dollar.Traders were left on tenterhooks for any further huge swings in the yen after Tokyo was suspected to have intervened to support its currency this week, on Monday and on Wednesday, to the tune of some 9.16 trillion yen ($59.8 billion), as suggested by data from Bank of Japan. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.74 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.62(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.26(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stock rose on Friday as investors assessed various corporate earnings, including those from Apple , before the release of the crucial monthly U.S. jobs report.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.54percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Friday as traders continued to assess the recent Federal Reserve decision and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.
Spot gold eased 0.2% to $2,297 an ounce and was set for a second straight weekly decline.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday, but headed for their steepest weekly loss in three months as uncertainty about demand and high interest rates drove a sell-off limited by the prospect OPEC+ will continue to curb output.
Brent crude futures for July rose 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.98 a barrel by 0755 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June was up 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.21 per barrel.
