Market Roundup
•Finnish Mar Industry Output (YoY) -7.7%,1.3% previous
•German Mar Industrial Production (YoY) -3.35%,-4.76% previous
•Finnish Mar Finnish Trade Balance -0.81B,-0.66B previous
•German Mar German Industrial Production (MoM) -0.4%,-0.6% forecast, 2.1% previous
•Italian Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Italian Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 2.0%,2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Mar Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) 2.3% previous
•14:00 US Mar Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.430M forecast,7.265M previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 59B previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW)-0.230M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles-0.179M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 1.536M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•15:45 US Fed Collins Speaks
15:45 US Fed Collins Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Wednesday as dollar climbed as investors assessed the signals on the path for Federal Reserve interest rates. Based on the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders in the federal funds futures market believe there is a roughly two-thirds chance the U.S. central bank will cut rates in September. The European Central Bank is confident of a likely first rate cut in June and as Middle East tensions are somewhat ebbing. The European Central Bank has signalled its intention to cut in June, assuming the data points in the right direction, and the BoE is gradually smoothing the way to its first cut. The euro was last down at $1.0741. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0810(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0888(23.650% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0740 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0723(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Wednesday ahead of a Bank of England decision on interest rates at which analysts expect the central bank to telegraph when investors can expect borrowing costs to begin to decline. After the BoE's most recent policy meeting six weeks ago, the expectation was for three 25-basis-point cuts. But since then, the data has shown Britain's economy continues to chug along, wage growth - a focal point for the central bank is moderating, though only slowly, and overall inflation is gradually declining towards the 2% target.Sterling was down 0.13% on the day at $1.2493. The pound also slipped against the euro, which gained 0.1% on the day to trade at 86.06 pence . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2507 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2567(23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2469 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2433 ( 61.8% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday on renewed bets that Federal Reserve will cuts rate this year. Investors are focussed on the pace and timing of Fed rate cuts that will likely drive the currency market. The latest data showing weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs creation, together with an easing bias from the U.S. central bank, have cemented expectations that rates will likely be lower by year-end.The dollar was last up 0.1% at 105.48 against a basket of currencies , above last week's one-month low. Futures are pricing in less than two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, which is quite a way from the six to seven that were discounted at the beginning of the year.Several Fed speakers are lined up to talk in the coming days, which will give investors insights on the rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9124(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9178 ( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9056(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9002(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday as yen weakened for a third day, keeping investors wary of the risk of intervention from Tokyo. The yen remained front of mind for currency traders, weakening for a third day and prompting Japanese officials to issue a stronger warning over the impact of the weak currency on the economy.Traders believe Japanese authorities spent some $60 billion last week on propping up the yen after it hit its weakest in 34-years against the dollar around 160 yen.Analysts have said any intervention from Tokyo would only offer temporary respite for the yen, given the wide gap between interest rates in the U.S. and Japan. Strong resistance can be seen at 156.29 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.38(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 152.86(50% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Wednesday, boosted by company earnings, while U.S. futures were flat and the dollar climbed as investors assessed the signals on the path for Federal Reserve interest rates.
At (GMT 12:22 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Wednesday as industry data showed a rise in crude and fuel inventories in the U.S. and as the U.S. dollar strengthened, signalling that demand for oil is coming under pressure.
Brent crude oil futures fell $1.11, or 1.3%, to $82.05 a barrel by 0955 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.15, or 1.5%, to $77.23 a barrel.
