Market Roundup
• UK Apr Nationwide HPI (MoM) -0.4% ,0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
• UK Apr Nationwide HPI (YoY) 0.6%,1.2% forecast,1.6% previous
• Greek Apr Manufacturing PMI 55.2,56.9 previous
• UK Apr Manufacturing PMI 49.1, 48.7 forecast,50.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Apr ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 179K forecast,184K previous
•13:30 Canada Apr Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast, 49.8 previous
•13:45 US Apr Manufacturing PMI 49.9 forecast,51.9 previous
•14:00 US Mar Construction Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 51.4 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing Prices 55.5 forecast,55.8 previous
•14:00 US Mar JOLTs Job Openings 8.680M forecast,8.756M previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.0 forecast,50.3 previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.659M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.300M forecast,-6.368M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:30 BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast,5.50% previous
•18:00 US FOMC Statement
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
•20:15 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•20:15 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday but gains were limited as investors awaited Federal Reserve policy decision. The Fed is almost certain to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady later in the day, but a policy statement issued at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference half an hour later should provide insight into how deeply if at all a stretch of three lost months in the inflation battle has affected the likelihood that borrowing costs will fall any time soon. The euro was up at $1.0678, after falling 0.52% the previous day when the U.S. data pushed the dollar higher. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0721(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0751(61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0650 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0635(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day for hints about when U.S. borrowing costs might start to fall. Data on Tuesday showed that growth in U.S. labour costs accelerated in the first quarter of the year, sparking a rise in U.S. bond yields and the dollar that weighed on sterling, the euro and other major currencies.The pound has fallen 1.9% this year as the dollar has risen, although it has outperformed the euro's 3.4% drop thanks partly to a stronger economy and price pressures.Sterling was last effectively unchanged from Tuesday at $1.2488, after falling 0.55% the previous day as the dollar rallied on the back of strong U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2569 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2655(50 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased was little changed against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as market focus tuned to the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement on Wednesday. U.S. Federal Reserve officials are concluding their latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and are expected to hold interest rates steady. Investors are now only confident about a single cut this year, most likely in November, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.Expectations of delayed Fed cuts have caused the dollar to gain against most currencies in recent weeks, with other major central banks such as the European Central Bank and Bank of England set to cut more substantially this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9200(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9229(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9122(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9038(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied against yen against on Wednesday as investors’ attention turned to FOMC meeting statement later in the day. The currency rose to 160 per dollar on Monday, its highest since 1990, before slipping towards 154.4 per dollar with traders pointing to likely official intervention.Japanese officials may have spent some 5.5 trillion yen($35.05 billion) in supporting the currency on Monday, Bank of Japan data suggested on Tuesday, but the yen was last at 157.9, over half way back to its pre-intervention level. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.29 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.38(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.04(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 154.41(50% fib).
Equities Recap
European stock markets was closed for the May 1 labour day holiday.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell for a third day on Wednesday amid increasing hopes of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and rising crude inventories and production in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.
Brent was down 1% at $85.40 a barrel. U.S. crude was down 1.3% at $80.90.
Gold was flat at $2284.4 an ounce down 6% from its mid-April record high, also affected by easing tensions in the Middle East.
