Market Roundup
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3%,0.8% forecast,3.2% previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) 4.7%,3.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Mar Imports 64.84B,65.23B previous
•Canada Mar Trade Balance -2.28B, 1.10B forecast,1.39B previous
•US Mar Trade Balance -69.40B, -69.50B forecast,-68.90B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 208K,212K forecast,207K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims1,774K, 1,800K forecast,1,781K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 210.00K, 213.25K previous
•US Imports 327.00B,331.90B previous
•US Exports 257.60B, 263.00B previous
•US Mar Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.5%,1.1% previous
•US Mar Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% previous
•US Mar Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 2.3%,2.3% previous
•US Mar Factory Orders (MoM) 1.6%, 1.6% forecast,1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 1.0% forecast,1.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar retreated ahead of US jobs data. Data released on Thursday included muted jobless claims, a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's closely watched April employment report. Friday’s jobs report for April, which is expected to show that employers added 243,000 jobs during the month. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 105.32. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0721(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0751(61.8% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0650 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0635(23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially slipped against the dollar but recovered ground as investors were playing down the impact UK local elections on Thursday might have on the currency.The pound was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2509, having risen 0.3% the day before after Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruled out hiking interest rates, which weighed on the U.S. dollar. While the Fed signalled that U.S. interest rates would be held at higher levels for longer, investors are looking to the Bank of England's meeting next week for clues on when its policy easing could begin. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2569 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2655(50 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2464 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday for a second straight day as equity markets climbed and the Bank of Canada said there is a limit to how much U.S. and Canadian interest rates can diverge. Wall Street's main indexes advanced, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled a dovish tilt, with focus moving to a crucial job report on Friday. Canada in March recorded a surprise trade deficit of C$2.28 billion ($1.66 billion), the largest in nine months, as exports declined faster than imports, data showed. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3685 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.07 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3681 to 1.3742. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3699 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3789 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3629 (50 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3579(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against yen against on Thursday as traders cited another suspected round of intervention by the Bank of Japan. The gap between long-term government bond yields in the two countries is 371 basis points. That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal, which official data suggested was because of Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion. The MOF likely intervened in the currency market to signal they see 160 yen per dollar as their line in the sand, Columbia University academic and former finance ministry executive Takatoshi Ito told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. The dollar was last down 0.04% on the day at 154.41 yen .Strong resistance can be seen at 155.64 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.67(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.14(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 153.06(May 1st low).
Equities Recap
European shares fell slightly in their first May trading session on Thursday as investors returned from a mid-week holiday to gauge a slew of earnings after the Federal Reserve signalled a delay in U.S. interest rate cuts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.88 percent.
U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's more dovish-than-expected interest rate guidance on Wednesday against a plethora of mixed earnings and economic data.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.85% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.91% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.51% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields were choppy in the wake of the Fed and economic data, as the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 0.8 basis point to 4.583%, from 4.591% late on Wednesday.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 5.2 basis points to 4.8872%, from 4.939%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled on Thursday near their lowest level in seven-weeks, narrowly mixed and under pressure from weaker global demand, rising inventories and fading hopes for a quick cut in U.S. interest rates.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5 cents to settle at $78.95 a barrel, the lowest since March 12. Global benchmark Brent crude futures also hit the lowest since early March, then bounced off session lows to settle 23 cents, or 0.3%, higher at $83.67 a barrel.
