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US wholesale inventories jumped to 0.5% m/m in September, well above forecast (0.0%) and consensus expectations (0.1%). The better than expected wholesale inventory growth came from the nondurable goods sector (1.9% m/m, previous: 0.5%), where wholesale drug inventories (4.4%, previous: -0.9%) reversed three months of destocking and wholesale apparel inventories (2.3%, previous: 1.9%) rose sharply at quarter-end.
Wholesale inventories of durable goods declined 0.4% m/m in September (previous: +0.2% m/m). August wholesale inventory growth was revised higher in this morning's report (0.3% m/m, initial: 0.1%), driven by an upward revision to nondurable goods (0.5% m/m, initial: -0.2%).
"This morning's data outpaced the BEA's assumptions incorporated in the advance estimate of Q3 GDP. The revised path of wholesale inventories through September suggests total private inventories subtracted 1.1pp from GDP real growth in Q3, less than the 1.4pp initially estimated by the BEA. This boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by three-tenths to 1.7%," says Barclays.
