SpaceX Stock Plunges 16% as KeyBanc Warns Valuation May Be Overstretched

SpaceX shares tumbled more than 16% on Monday after investment firm KeyBanc initiated coverage with a cautious outlook, suggesting the aerospace giant’s valuation has become stretched following its strong post-IPO rally.

The stock closed at $154.59, only slightly above its June 12 IPO opening price of $150. Since its market debut, SpaceX shares had climbed as high as $225.64 before the latest selloff erased approximately $400 billion in market value. Investors are now reassessing whether the company’s long-term growth potential can justify its premium valuation.

Adding to the spotlight, SpaceX announced a senior unsecured notes offering and revealed it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. The company said proceeds from the debt offering will be used to repay bridge financing and support general corporate operations.

KeyBanc assigned Space Exploration Technologies a Sector Weight rating, noting that many of the company’s future growth opportunities appear already reflected in its stock price. While six analysts currently maintain Buy ratings on SpaceX, KeyBanc remains neutral, and CFRA is the only major firm with a Sell recommendation.

According to KeyBanc, SpaceX remains the dominant force in commercial space launch and related industries. However, analysts believe the stock’s risk-reward profile is balanced until there is clearer visibility into the development of the company’s next-generation Starship rocket.

The brokerage estimates SpaceX shares are trading at roughly 29 times projected 2027 sales and 71 times estimated EV/EBITDA, significantly higher than many peers in the space, artificial intelligence, and communications sectors.

SpaceX operates across three major business segments: Connectivity, which includes the Starlink satellite internet network; Space, which covers launch vehicles such as Falcon 9 and Starship; and AI, which encompasses Grok and xAI infrastructure following the company’s merger with xAI in 2026.

Starlink remains the company’s primary profit driver, generating an estimated $11.4 billion in revenue during 2025 with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. Meanwhile, the AI division is expected to become a major growth catalyst, with KeyBanc forecasting segment revenue could reach $50.6 billion by 2027. However, analysts cautioned that Grok still trails competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic in business adoption.

Looking ahead, Starship’s development remains the key factor influencing SpaceX’s long-term valuation. The rocket is essential for deploying next-generation Starlink satellites, lowering launch costs through full reusability, and supporting future orbital infrastructure projects. SpaceX’s upcoming Starship Flight 13, scheduled for June 29, will be closely watched by investors seeking further evidence of the company’s growth trajectory.