FxWirePro:EUR/NZD neutral in the near-term, scope for downward resumption

• EUR/NZD edged lower on Monday    as markets monitored U.S.-Iran developments and looked ahead to a busy week of economic data.

• The Trump administration warned countries on Monday to sever business ties with Iran or face secondary sanctions, calling the move an “economic D-Day,” though no penalties were imposed immediately.

• The threat of sanctions ⁠follows fears of prolonged inflation that gripped global markets last week as U.S. Treasury yields hit a multi-decade high amid persisting tensions in the Middle East.

• Investors are also watching a series of economic releases this week, including German and French GDP, the German Ifo survey and Spanish inflation data, which could influence expectations for a more hawkish ECB as renewed energy-price pressures raise inflation concerns.

• Money markets are pricing in a more hawkish move from the European Central Bank, betting geopolitical ⁠tensions ​could keep price pressures elevated and drive the deposit rate close to 3% by late 2027.

• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9633(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9740 (38.2%fib).

• Immediate support is seen at 1.9515(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9432(23.6% fib).

Recommendation: Good to sell  around 1.9570 with stop loss of 1.9650  and target price of 1.9500