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Technical Analysis:
- USD/JPY struggles to extend gains above 50-DMA currently at 115.03.
- Risk-off across markets fuel yen demand keeping the pair subdued.
- Stiff resistance on the upside, price action capped within daily cloud.
- Currently the pair is holding above 5-DMA support, break below will see further drag.
Fundamental Factors:
- The Japanese yen in demand today as risk-off prevails across markets after Trump's shocker on Friday.
- Trump’s travel bans stoked fears over global political turmoil and curbed the demand for risky assets.
- Trump’s immigration policy fuelled concerns over his protectionist policies and its impact on global trade.
- Yen largely ignored today's Japan’s retail sales data miss. Japan’s December retail sales y/y decreased to 0.6 % (forecast 1.3 %) vs previous 1.7 %.
- Focus now remains on the Bank of Japan meeting (Tuesday) to provide fresh impetus on the yen.
- Major data lined up for this week include - US core PCE price index data, followed by the FOMC decision, China manufacturing PMI and US payrolls.
Support levels - 114.24 (5-DMA), 113.97 (23.6% Fib retrace of 98.787 to 118.662 rise), 113.04 (double bottom Jan 25,26)
Resistance levels - 114.91 (20-DMA), 115.03 (50-DMA), 115.13 (cloud top)
TIME TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX
1H Bullish Neutral
4H Neutral Neutral
1D Neutral Neutral
1W Bullish Neutral
Recommendation: Short break below 5-DMA at 114.24, SL: 115.10, TP: 113.62/ 113/ 112.60
FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly USD Spot Index was at 23.5674(Neutral), while Hourly JPY Spot Index was at -118.973(Highly bearish) at 0625 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
