- Aussie spiked after the Australian macro releases outpaced expectations.
- Australia's March retail sales came at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, the trade balance printed -2,163M vs -2,900M expected and newly-built home sales surged 8.9% m/m in March, rising at the fastest pace in six years.
- AUD/USD bounced off strong support by 38.2 % Fib of Jan to April rise at 0.7450 levels and is currently trading around 0.7490 levels.
- Further upside may seem restricted as the latest Chinese services PMI reading disappointed markets and technically also the pair finds strong resistance at 0.75 levels.
- Data released earlier showed China April Caixin Service PMI came in at 51.8 (prior 52.2) & Composite stood 50.8 (prior 51.3).
- Data which could influence the pair today include U.S. weekly jobless claims and building permits data. Besides, Fed official Bullard’s speech will be closely heard for fresh insights on the US interest rates outlook.
- The pair finds strong resistance at 0.75 (cloud top) and support on the downside is seen at 0.7450 (38.2% Fib).
- Weekly Techs are biased lower. Break above 0.75 could see upside till 0.7517 (May 4th highs). Bearish invalidation only above 0.7538 (5-DMA).
- Break below 38.2% Fib can see test of 0.7415, 0.74 and then 0.7340 (weekly cloud base).
Recommendation: Go short on breakout below 0.7450, target 0.7410/0.7340
