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  |   Market Roundups


Europe Roundup: Sterling holds above $1.39 after Sunak's generous budget, European stocks dips, Gold gains, Oil prices dip ahead of OPEC+ meeting-March 4th,2021

Market Roundup

•German Feb IHS Markit Construction PMI  41.0, 46.6 previous

•UK Feb Construction PMI  53.3, 51.0 forecast, 49.2 previous

•EU Jan Retail Sales (MoM)  -5.9%,-1.1% forecast,2.0% previous

•EU Jan Retail Sales (YoY)  -6.4%,-1.2% forecast, 0.6% previous

•EU Jan Unemployment Rate  8.1%,8.3% forecast, 8.3% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data

•13:00 Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 585.7B previous

•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 4,300K forecast, 4,419K previous

•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg  807.75K previous

•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 750K forecast, 730K previous

•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) -4.7% forecast,-4.8% previous

•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) -10.3% previous

•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 6.6% forecast, 6.8% previous

•13:30 US Jan Factory Orders (MoM) 2.1%, 1.1% previous

•15:00 US Factory Jan orders ex transportation (MoM) 1.4% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•17:05 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks


EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as investors continued to snap up dollars as they bet on a U.S. economy outshining its peers in the developed world in coming months. Optimism over the U.S. economy boosted the greenback against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index up 0.28% at 91.062..All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is set to speak on Thursday at 1705 GMT. Investors will be watching his remarks for signs the central bank is poised to concede the risk of a rapid rise in interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2065 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2107 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2023 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards  1.1989 (2nd March low).

GBP/USD: Sterling held above $1.39 against the dollar on Thursday after British finance minister Rishi Sunak unveiled an expansive annual budget designed to prop up the economy. Sterling is the best-performing G10 currency this year, with investors expecting Britain’s speedy vaccination programme will help the economy to recover from its worst annual contraction in 300 years.As the locked-down country prepares to re-open, Sunak delivered what he hopes will be a last big spending splurge to get the economy through the COVID-19 crisis. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4000 ( Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4047 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3910 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3858(2nd March low).

USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Thursday as a more orderly rise in U.S. Treasury yields lent support to dollar ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that may determine the trend for global bond markets and currencies. The dollar rose to 107.28 yen, the highest since July last year. The U.S. currency bought 0.92090 Swiss franc during early deals in London, its highest against the safe haven currency since October 2 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9255 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9300 (Pscyhological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9227 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9183(38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar rose to hit seven month high against the Japanese yen on Thursday   as hopes that vaccine distribution and more government stimulus will drive the U.S. economy into a solid rebound lifted the greenback. Investor focus on an economic rebound was not detracted by data released overnight that showed the U.S. labour market struggling in February, when private payrolls rose less than expected. A firmer dollar pushed the Japanese yen to a low of 107.06 yen, a level not seen since July. By early Thursday, the Japanese yen stood at 107.06 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.48 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.83 (July 7th 2020 High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.14 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 106.69 (50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks fell on Thursday after three straight sessions of gains as a jump in U.S. bond yields knocked risk appetite globally, with heavyweight miners and travel stocks leading the retreat.

At (GMT 12:40 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down  at 0. 75 percent, Germany's Dax was down  by  0.41  percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0. 19 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from a near nine-month low hit in the previous session, but rising U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold   rose 0.5% to $1,719.21 per ounce by 0729 GMT, having dropped to its lowest since June 9 at $1,701.40 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures   was up 0.1% to $1,717.50.

Oil prices dipped on Thursday ahead of talks between OPEC and its allies on whether to ease production cuts and after a record jump in U.S. crude oil stocks following Texan refinery outages.

Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.84 a barrel by 0927 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 31 cents, or 0.5% to $60.97.

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