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Europe Roundup: Sterling edges up against dollar, European shares gain, Gold firms, Oil near one-month highs as demand outlook improves-April 15th,2021

Market Roundup

•U.S. jobless claims, March retail sales data due at 1230 GMT

•German HICP March (YoY) 2.0%,2.0% forecast, 1.6% previous

•German March CPI (YoY)  1.7%,1.7% forecast, 1.3% previous

•German March HICP (MoM)  0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.6%   previous  

•German March CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous  

•French Mar CPI (MoM)  0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.0% previous

•French Mar HICP (YoY)  1.4%, 1.4% forecast, 0.8% previous       

•French Mar  HICP (MoM)   0.7%,0.7% forecast, 0.0% previous

•French CPI (YoY) 1.1%,1.1% forecast, 1.1% previous

•Italian Mar HICP (YoY)  0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous        

•Italian Mar CPI (YoY)  0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous           

•Italian Mar CPI (MoM)  0.3%,0.3% forecast, 1.1% previous

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

•12:00 Brazilian Feb Service Sector Growth (YoY)  -3.5% forecast, -4.7% previous

•12:30 US March Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM)  -3.3% previous

•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed Business Conditions  61.6 previous

•12:30 US March Retail Control (MoM)  6.3%, -3.5% previous

•12:30 US Apr Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index  42.0 forecast, 51.8 previous

•12:30 US March Core Retail Sales (MoM)  5.0% forecast, -2.7% previous

•12:30 US March Retail Sales (MoM)  5.9% forecast, -3.0% previous

•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed New Orders  50.9 previous

•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid  75.90 previous

•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed Employment  30.1 previous

•12:30 US Apr Philly Fed CAPEX Index  35.90 previous

•12:30 US Apr NY Empire State Manufacturing Index  19.50 forecast, 17.40 previous

•12:30 Canada Feb  Manufacturing Sales (MoM)  -1.0%,3.1% previous

•12:30 Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change-100.8K previous

•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 700K, 744K previous

•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg  723.75K previous

•12:30 US Jobless Continuing Jobless Claims        3,700K forecast, 3,734K previous

•13:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) 4.0% forecast,-3.1% previous

•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (YoY) -4.25% previous

•13:15 US Mar Capacity Utilization Rate 75.7%,73.8% previous

•13:15 US Mar Industrial Production (MoM)  2.8% forecast,- 2.2% previous

•14:00 US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto  1.2% previous

•14:00 US Apr NAHB Housing Market Index  83  forecast,- 82 previous

•14:00 US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•14:00 Switzerland SNB Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks

•14:30 German Buba Mauderer Speaks

•15:30 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

•18:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Thursday as massive second wave of coronavirus cases in Europe weighed on sentiment. Markets were looking ahead to the release of U.S. weekly jobless claims and March retail sales data later in the day for cues on the speed and extent of recovery in the world's largest economy before adjusting their positions. The euro was down 0.02% to $1.1969. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1986 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2072 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1940(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1880 (23.6%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound edged up on Thursday, helped by a broadly weaker dollar, but was still close to six-week lows versus the euro. Sterling had a strong first quarter of the year, helped by relief that a no-deal Brexit was avoided at the end of 2020, the UK's pace of vaccine rollout and a lessening of negative rates expectations. But it has had a weaker start to April. The dollar sank to a four-week low, as Treasury yields pulled back from their recent highs - a move which nudged the pound higher. At `12:10 GMT, the pound was up 0.14% at $1.3792 against a weaker dollar Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3809  (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3915(61.8%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3748  (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3702(38.2%fib ).

USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Thursday as market awaited U.S. weekly jobless claims and retail sales data that will shed light on the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would cut its monthly bond purchases before committing to an interest rate hike, clarifying the sequence of monetary policy adjustments are still months if not years in the future.Investors now await the release of U.S. weekly jobless claims and March retail sales data due later at 12:30 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9238 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9285 (11DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9188(50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9157(38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Thursday as Treasury yields pulled back from last month’s surge, with investors increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low for some time. The dollar index, which tracks the it against six other currencies, dipped to its lowest since March 18 at 91.535 in the European session before recovering to be basically flat at 91.590. The dollar was last trading down 0.15% at 108.76 yen, after hitting a daily low of 108.65. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.18(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.27 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.54(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 108.28(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks hit a record high on Thursday as a rally in commodity prices lifted miners, while some positive earnings reports offset worries about the pace of COVID-19 vaccination.

At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC  was last up by 0.38 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold gained on Thursday as a weaker dollar and Treasury yields bolstered bullion's appeal, ahead of U.S. weekly jobless claims and retail sales data that will shed light on the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy.

 Spot gold  rose 0.6% to $1,747.10 per ounce by 0928 GMT. U.S. gold futures        gained 0.7% to $1,748.20.

Oil prices eased on Thursday but remained close to a one-month high driven by more positive demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC as major economies recover from the pandemic.

Brent crude was down 25 cents, or 0.4%, cents at $66.33 a barrel by 0945 GMT, after reaching $66.94 earlier, the highest since March 18.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $62.85 a barrel, earlier rising to $63.48, also the highest since March 18.

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