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Asia Roundup: Kiwi rallies as trade surplus balance widen, dollar hits over 10-day low against yen on dovish Fed minutes, Asian shares ease on Trump's tariff warning - Thursday, May 24th, 2018

Market Roundup

  • U.S. launches national security probe of vehicle imports
     
  • Trump calls for new "structure" for U.S.-China trade deal
     
  • China hopes to work with Japan, SoKorea to reach FTA agreement ASAP.
  • China's Premier Li says China and Germany uphold free trade
     
  • Trump says will know next week if N. Korea summit to go ahead
     
  • Japan Reuters Tankan mfg index +22, non-mfg +39, record high, April +21, +36.
     
  • BOJ member warns against overly stimulating demand with easy policy
     
  • Most Fed policymakers say rate hike likely needed 'soon,' minutes show
     
  • New Zealand cenbank says domestic banks robust but not immune to threats

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr Retail Sales MM, f'cast 0.7%, last -1.2%
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr Retail Sales YY, f'cast 0.1%, last 1.1%

Key Events Ahead

  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Bank of England's Mark Carney speaks at the Bank of England Markets Forum 2018 in London

  • (0415 ET/0815 GMT) Fed's William Dudley speaks at Markets Forum 2018 in London
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) ECB's Peter Praet speaks at 2018 IIF Spring Meeting organized by the Institute of International Finance in Brussels
     
  • (0630 ET/1030 GMT) Keynote speech by ECB chief economist Peter Praet at the European Business Summit in Brussels
     
  • (0730 ET/1130 GMT) ECB publishes minutes of April policy meeting in Frankfurt
     
  • (1035 ET/1435 GMT) Fed's Raphael Bostic and Robert Kaplan give opening remarks at the "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy" conference in Dallas
     
  • (1100 ET/1500 GMT) Britain Finance Minister Philip Hammond speaks at conference in Brussels
     
  • (1100 ET/1500 GMT) Fed's Robert Kaplan moderates "Session I: The Disruption Challenge Facing Business" in Dallas
     
  • (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Bank of England's Mark Carney speaks at the annual dinner of London's Society of Professional Economists in London
     
  • (1400 ET/1800 GMT) Fed's Patrick Harker participates in "Session III: Broader Labor Market Implications of Technology-Enabled Disruption" in Dallas
     

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index steadied near recent highs after the U.S. government launched a national security probe into auto imports that could lead to new tariffs. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.05 percent up at 93.95, having touched a high of 94.19 on Wednesday, its highest since Dec. 12. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -60.97 (Bearish) by 0500 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded after falling to a 5-month low in the prior session on the back of concerns over an economic slowdown in the Eurozone and political risks in Italy. Investors now await Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts from the European Central Bank for further momentum on the major. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1710, having touched a low of 1.1675 on Wednesday, its lowest since Nov. 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -137.37 (Highly Bearish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on the German GDP figures and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, ahead of the U.S. unemployment benefit claims, housing price index, existing home sales and Fed officials' speeches. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1765 (5-DMA), a break above targets 1.1938 (May 15 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1669 (Oct. 10 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1622 (Nov. 10 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar slumped to a 10-day low against the Japanese yen after minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a dovish approach to interest rate hikes in the United States. Moreover, the threat by U.S. President Donald Trump of imposing new tariffs on imported cars and concerns over political risks in Italy underpinned the bid tone around the safe-haven assets. The major was trading 0.6 percent down at 109.47, having hit a high of 111.39 on Monday, its highest since Jan. 18.  FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 147.83 (Highly Bullish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. prelim Markit PMI's, new home sales and Fed officials' speeches. Immediate resistance is located at 110.26 (10-DMA), a break above targets 110.69 (5-DMA). On the downside, support is seen at 108.99 (May 9 Low), a break below could take it lower 108.64.

GBP/USD: Sterling steadied after falling to a near 6-month low in the prior session on weaker-than-expected UK inflation that dented the prospect of the Bank of England hiking interest rates this year. The major traded 0.2 percent high at 1.3365, having hit a low of 1.3305 on Wednesday, it’s lowest since Dec. 12. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -24.65 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ focus will remain on the UK retail sales and BoE Governor Carney's speech, ahead of U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3433 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.3574 (21-DMA). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3305 (Previous Session Low), a break below targets 1.3270. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent up at 87.56 pence, having hit a low of 87.96 pence on Wednesday, it’s lowest since May 15.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded after falling from two straight sessions, as the greenback eased after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting were seen as dovish. However, the upside appeared capped as tense headlines from the US. President Trump to make a formal investigation into foreign vehicle imports dampened investor risk sentiment. The Aussie trades 0.05 percent up at 0.7561, having hit a high of 0.7605 On Tuesday; it’s highest since Apr. 25. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 88.48 (Slightly Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.7525 (21-DMA), a break below targets 0.7472 (May 1 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7605 (May 22 High), a break above could take it near 0.7682 (Apr. 23 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar held firm after domestic April trade data recorded a bigger surplus although the March deficit was larger than originally reported. The economy's trade balance for April surplus came in at 263 million, against expected surplus 198 million, and previous deficit of 156 million, revised from 86 million deficit. The major trades 0.1 percent up at 0.6921, having touched a high of 0.6974 on Tuesday, its highest level since May 11. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 37.37 (Neutral) by 0500 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6974, a break above could take it near 0.7030. On the downside, support is seen at 0.6835, a break below could drag it below 0.6805.

Equities Recap

Asian shares declined after U.S. President Donald Trump's comments indicated fresh setbacks in U.S.-China trade talks, triggering risk-off sentiment across financial markets.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.1 percent in early trade.

Tokyo's Nikkei eased 1.2 percent to 22,430.85 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.05 percent to 6,034.10 points and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 0.1 percent to 2,469.49 points.

Shanghai composite index fell 0.2 percent to 3,162.78 points, while CSI300 index was trading 0.4 percent down at 3,840.93 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading 0.05 percent lower at 30,667.53 points. Taiwan shares added 0.5 percent to 10,936.93 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices declined on expectations that OPEC members will step up production in the face of worries over supply from both Venezuela and Iran. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent down at $79.51 per barrel by 0443 GMT, having hit a high of $80.47 last week, its highest since Nov. 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.3 percent down at $71.90 a barrel, after rising as high as $72.28 last Thursday, its highest since Nov. 2014.

Gold prices edged higher for a second straight session as the dollar extended losses after minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a dovish approach to interest rate hikes in the United States. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,295.48 per ounce at 0446 GMT, having hit a low of $1,281.99 on Monday, its lowest price level since Dec. 27. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up 0.4 percent at $1,294.60 per ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The 10-year U.S Treasury yield stood at 2.999 percent lower by 0.004 bps, while 5-year yield was 0.009 bps down at 2.825 percent.

The Japanese government bonds gained as we approach towards the end of the week, following a massive decline sparked off in the United States 10-year yields, post minutes of the FOMC’s May monetary policy meeting, released late yesterday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1/2 basis point to 0.04 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note slumped 1-1/2 basis points to 0.74 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year remained flat at -0.14 percent.

The Australian government bonds rallied tracking firmness in the U.S. Treasuries as investors risk sentiments weighed down by renewed geopolitical caution towards US negotiations with North Korea and China. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year Note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 4-1/2 basis points to 2.801 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year Note also dipped 4-1/2 basis points to 3.298 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year down 1 basis point to 2.025 percent.

The New Zealand bonds jumped at the time of closing, tracking similar movement in the U.S. counterpart, as investors flocked into safe-haven instruments after the release of the Federal Reserve’s May monetary policy meeting minutes. At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, slumped 4-1/2 basis points to 2.79 percent, the yield on the long-term 20-year note plunged 5-1/2 basis points to 3.31 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year closed flat at 1.87 percent.

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