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Asia Roundup: Kiwi at 7-month trough on rate cut speculation, dollar off highs against yen as U.S. home sales ease, Asian shares volatile - Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Market Roundup

  • China ready for further U.S. trade talks, ambassador says
     
  • U.S. could blacklist Chinese surveillance tech firm Hikvision -NYT
     
  • U.S. business group says retaliation rising in China amid trade war
     
  • Reflationist-minded BOJ policymaker calls for more stimulus 'without delay'
     
  • Japan Apr Exports YY, -2.4%, -1.8% f'cast, -2.4% prev
     
  • Japan Apr Imports YY, 6.4%, 4.8% f'cast, 1.2% prev
     
  • Japan Apr Trade Balance Total (Yen), 60.4 bln, 203.2 bln f'cast, 527.8 bln prev
     
  • Australian PM meets with c.bank chief as stimulus calls grow
     
  • Britain's May tries to break Brexit deadlock with offer of 'new deal'
     
  • U.S. House Democrats subpoena more Trump ex-aides, including Hicks
     
  • New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales Volumes QQ, 0.7%, 1.7% prev
     
  • AZ Q1 Construction Work Done, -1.9%, 0.0% f'cast, -3.1% prev
     
  • POLL-India stocks to climb a bit more if Modi wins decisively

Economic Data Ahead
 

  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr CPI YY, 2.2% f'cast, 1.9% prev
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr RPI YY, 2.8% f'cast, 2.4% prev
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr PPI Input Prices YY NSA, 4.5% f'cast, 3.7% prev
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr PPI Output Prices YY NSA, 2.3% f'cast, 2.4% prev
     
  • (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Apr PPI Core Output YY NSA, 2.2% f'cast, 2.2% prev

Key Events Ahead

  • N/A ECB Governing Council non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
     
  • (0230 ET/0630 GMT) Swedish Central Bank to publish financial stability report 2019:1
     
  • (0330 ET/0730 GMT) ECB's Mario Draghi speaks on "Monetary policy in an incomplete Monetary Union" organised by ECB in Frankfurt
     
  • (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Riksbank's Per Jansson and Olof Sandstedt speak at a press conference in Stockholm
     
  • (0530 ET/0930 GMT) ECB's Peter Praet speaks on "Monetary policy in an incomplete Monetary Union" organised by ECB in Frankfurt
     
  • (1000 ET/1400 GMT) New York Fed's John Williams speaks and participates in panel at an economic press briefing on current and future outlook for U.S. home ownership, focusing on younger households in New York
     
  • (1010 ET/1410 GMT) Fed Atlanta's Raphael Bostic speaks at "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy" conference in Dallas
     
  • (1400 ET/1800 GMT) BoE's Andy Haldane speaks on Fourth Industrial Revolution on behalf of Pro Bono Economics charity in London
     
  • (1400 ET/1800 GMT) FOMC releases minutes from its April 30-May 1 policy meeting

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rose after China's ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai stated that Beijing is ready to resume trade talks with Washington. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent up at 98.04, having touched a high of 98.13 on Tuesday, its highest since April 26. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 155.25 (HIghly Bullish) by 0400 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro declined, drifting closer to an over 2-week low recorded in the prior session, amid ongoing political concerns in Italy, ahead of the May 23-26 European parliamentary election. The European currency traded 0.05 percent down at 1.1153, having touched a low of 1.1142 on Tuesday, its lowest since May 3. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -1.24 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on the ECB non-monetary policy meeting and speeches by ECB President Mario Draghi and Executive Board member Praet, ahead of the minutes from U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1218 (May 7 High), a break above targets 1.1262 (April 22 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1118 (April 25 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.1100.

USD/JPY: The dollar eased after rising to a 2-week peak in the previous session, as data showed U.S. home sales fell for a second straight month in April, weighed down by persisting shortage of more affordable houses. The major was trading 0.05 percent down at 110.45, having hit a high of 110.67 on Tuesday, its highest since May 7. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -63.86 (Bearish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the minutes from U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Immediate resistance is located at 111.11 (78.6% retracement of 111.68 and 109.01), a break above targets 111.61 (May 1 High). On the downside, support is seen at 109.90 (May 8 Low), a break below could take it lower at 109.47 (May 10 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling steadied after falling to a 4-month low in the prior session, as Prime Minister Theresa May proposed a new deal for Britain's departure from the European Union, offering sweeteners to opposition parties including a parliamentary vote on whether to hold a second EU referendum to try to break the impasse over Brexit. The major traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2714, having hit a low of 1.2685 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since Jan. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -45.77 (Neutral) 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on the UK retail price index, producer price index and consumer price index, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2754 (5-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.2803 (23.6% retracement of 1.3176 and 1.2685). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2668 (Jan. 15 Low), a break below targets 1.2615 (Dec. 27 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent up at 87.73 pence, having hit a low of 87.89 on Tuesday, it’s lowest since Feb. 15.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar plunged, extending losses for the third straight session, as investors are almost certain the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its 1.5 percent cash rate by a quarter point when its policy board meets on June 4, the first easing since mid-2016. The Aussie trades 0.1 percent down at 0.6875, having hit a low of 0.6864 on Friday, it’s lowest since Jan. 3. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 35.21 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.6850, a break below targets 0.6815. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.6933 (May 16 High), a break above could take it near 0.6961 (Apr. 30 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar slumped to a 7-month trough as markets speculate that a cut in rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to ease again.  The Kiwi trades 0.1 percent down at 0.6496, having touched a low of 0.6495 earlier, its lowest level Oct. 26. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at -93.45 (Slightly Bearish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6555 (10-DMA), a break above could take it near 0.6591 (May 14 High). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6474 (Oct. 4 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6442 (Oct. 10 Low).

Equities Recap

Asian shares traded in a volatile market as relief over Washington's temporary relaxation of sanctions against China's Huawei Technologies failed to offset deeper worries about a trade dispute between both the economies.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan flat.

Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.05 percent to 21,280.55 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.1 percent to 6,509.00 points and South Korea's KOSPI rallied 0.4 percent to 2,069.25 points.

Shanghai composite index eased 0.7 percent to 2,887.49 points, while CSI 300 index traded 0.6 percent down at 3,644.25 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.1 percent higher at 27,683.57 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.1 percent to 10,457.22 points

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices declined after industry data showed an increase in U.S. crude inventories and as Saudi Arabia pledged to keep markets balanced. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.4 percent lower at $71.72 per barrel by 0440 GMT, having hit a high of $73.39 on Monday, its highest since Apr, 26. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.6 percent down at $62.55 a barrel, after rising as high as $63.79 on Monday, its highest since the May 1.

Gold prices eased, hovering towards a 2-week low touched in the previous session, as a stronger dollar and signs of easing U.S.-China war dented demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold eased 0.05 percent to $1,273.95 per ounce by 0445 GMT, having touched a low of $1,269.41 on Tuesday, its lowest since May 3. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $1,273.30 an ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield was up slightly at 2.428 percent.

The Japanese government bond prices were mostly firmer, with the 10-year JGB futures rising 0.03 points to 152.68. The benchmark 10-year cash JGB yield fell half basis point to minus 0.055 percent. The 20-year JGB yield dropped 1 basis point to 0.350 percent while 30-year and 40-year yields fell 1.5 basis point each 0.520 percent and 0.550 percent, respectively.

The Australian three-year bond contract dipped 1 tick to 98.815, while the 10-year contract lost 2.5 ticks to 98.3300.

The Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the two-year easing 13 Canadian cents to yield 1.676 percent and the 10-year declined 64 Canadian cents to yield 1.757 percent. The 10-year yield posted its highest intraday level since May 3 at 1.764 percent.

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