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America's Roundup: Dollar retreats from 13 1/2-month peak, Wall Street rebounds, Gold regains strength, Oil steadies but outlook for demand grows gloomy-August 17th, 2018

Market Roundup

• Trump hails U.S. dollar strength in tweet.
• China, U.S. to hold lower-level trade talks in late August.

• U.S. says ready with more sanctions if Turkey does not free pastor.

• Turkey will emerge stronger from lira crisis despite row with U.S. -minister.

• US Jul Housing Starts Number, 1.168M, 1.260M forecast, 1.173M previous, 1.158M revised.

• US Jul Building Permits Number, 1.311M, 1.310M forecast, 1.292M previous.

• US 11 Aug w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 212k, 215k forecast, 213k previous, 214k revised.

• Atlanta Fed keeps U.S. 3rd-qtr GDP growth view at 4.3 pct.

• CA Jun Manufacturing Sales m/m, 1.1%, 0.9% forecast, 1.4% previous, 1.5% revised.

• USTR Lighthizer eyes NAFTA breakthrough,' Mexico urges flexibility.

• Ratings agency Fitch sees growing risk of damaging no-deal Brexit.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•    16 Aug 22:45 New Zealand Q2 Producer Prices-Inputs, 0.6% previous

•    16 Aug 22:45 New Zealand Q2 PPI Output, 0.2% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•    No major events are scheduled

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1300 levels and currently trading at 1.1374 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.3407and hit lows at 1.1345 levels. The euro recovered against dollar on Thursday as dollar fell after news that a Chinese delegation will travel to the United States for trade talks, with investors buying back into currencies hit hard in the recent sell-off. China's Ministry of Commerce said it had received an invitation from the United States for talks to be held with U.S. Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs David Malpass. The development between the world's two biggest economies offered hope for investors who have been rattled by tit-for-tat tariffs between Beijing and Washington this summer. The dollar's stalling near its multi-month high came while President Donald Trump praised its recent strength on Thursday, even though he had said a strong greenback puts U.S. exporters at a disadvantage. Earlier Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC television a strong dollar was a sign of confidence. The index that tracks the greenback against six major currencies fell as much 0.4 percent before ending 0.06 percent lower on the day at 96.637. It reached 96.984 on Wednesday, which was the highest since June 2017. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.1367, away from Wednesday's low of $1.1301.

GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2658 levels and currently trading at 1.2712 levels. It reached session high at 1.2750 and dropped to session low at 1.2687 levels. Sterling edged higher from 14-month low against the dollar on Thursday but it gains were marginal despite strong British retail sales with the currency hamstrung by fears over Britain leaving the European Union.Hot weather and the World Cup boosted retail sales in July, data showed, but that offered little respite for the pound which traded just above the $1.27 level. A strong dollar and a crescendo of fears that Britain will fail to secure an agreement before leaving the EU in March have weighed on the pound as hedge funds bet against it. It has shed 12 percent of its value since April and on Wednesday sank to $1.2662, its weakest since June 2017. Few saw a Bank of England interest rate hike earlier this month as a vote of confidence in the economy, since Britain's future, and access to European markets, remains in doubt. Having sunk to 13-month lows, sterling could fall by up to another 10 percent in the coming months should Britain crash out of the European Union without a deal on future trade ties, luring more speculators to bet against the currency. Sterling lost almost two percent last week just as British holidaymakers were heading off for some overseas sun. The latest move lower was kickstarted by trade minister Liam Fox's warning that, with Britain less than eight months from its scheduled EU departure date in March, there was a 60 percent chance of leaving without a deal.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.3111 levels and is trading at 1.3155 levels. It has made session high at 1.3162 and lows at 1.3121 levels. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday after a planned oil pipeline from Alberta to Nebraska met with a setback, offsetting domestic data that showed a rise in factory sales.A federal judge in Montana on Wednesday ordered the U.S. State Department to do a full environmental review of a revised route for a phase of the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline, which, when completed, would carry heavy crude to Steele City in Nebraska from Canada's oilsands in Alberta. The pipeline could help reduce transport bottlenecks for Canadian oil, which trades at a discount to the price of U.S. crude. The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of other major currencies as news that a Chinese delegation will travel to the United States for trade talks prompted investors to buy back into currencies hit hard in a selloff in recent days.The currency, which lagged many other "G10" currencies on Wednesday, traded in a range of C$1.3114 to C$1.3164. On Monday, it neared a three-week low of C$1.3179. The Canadian dollar was trading near flat at C$1.3160 to the greenback .On the data front, Canadian factory sales grew by 1.1 percent in June from May, thanks largely to a rebound in petroleum and coal products after temporary shutdowns in the spring, Statistics Canada said.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7200 levels and currently trading at 0.7261 levels. It hit session high at 0.7285 and made session lows at 0.7250 levels. The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday as the crisis engulfing Turkey's lira calmed for a moment, although sentiment remained negative. News from China that a delegation will go to the United States in late August for trade talks also stirred hopes the dispute over tariffs might be settled short of an all-out trade war. It was just enough for the Aussie dollar to bounce to $0.7251 and away from a 19-month trough of $0.7203 touched on Wednesday. The currency faces immediate resistance in the $0.7280/90 zone and a major chart barrier at $0.7311.The Turkish lira steadied a little after Qatar pledged to invest $15 billion in the country and Turkey's central bank made it much more expensive to short the currency. However, the bout of turmoil across emerging markets had already dimmed the outlook for world growth and spooked investors out of resources. Copper sank over 4 percent on Wednesday to a 15-month trough. The industrial metal is seen as something of a bellwether for global activity and is also a major export earner for Australia, dealing a double blow to the Aussie. The strength of the U.S. dollar was putting extra pressure on commodities priced in the currency. All of which overshadowed Australian data showing unemployment fell to a six-year low of 5.3 percent in July.

Equities Recap

European shares recovered on Thursday after Beijing said it would hold trade talks with the United States this month, spurring risk appetite, although Italian shares fell sharply as Atlantia sank.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.9 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.7 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.9 percent.

U.S. stocks bounced back on Thursday, with the Dow setting a course for its best day in over four months, as a series of positive earnings and waning trade jitters girded investor confidence.

Dow Jones closed up by 1.58 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.79 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.42 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after reports of new trade talks between the United States and China boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven bonds.

Benchmark 10-year notes fell 7/32 in price to yield 2.877 percent, up from 2.851 percent on Wednesday.

The yield curve between 2-year and 10-year notes steepened to 25 basis points, from 23 basis points on Wednesday, the flattest level since 2007.

Commodities Recap

Oil rose slightly as global markets steadied on Thursday, recovering some of the previous day's 2 percent slide, though a weakening outlook for crude demand kept prices in check.

Brent crude oil futures settled 67 cents higher at $71.43 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose 45 cents to $65.46 a barrel.

Spot gold prices bounced from 19-month lows on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar slipped on news that China and the United States will hold trade talks this month, although sentiment remained negative.

Spot gold gained 0.3 percent at $1,177.80 an ounce by 1:39 p.m. EDT (1739 GMT), from an earlier low of $1,159.96, its weakest since January last year. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $1, or 0.1 percent, at $1,184 per ounce.
 

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