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America's Roundup: Dollar gains on solid retail sales, before Fed meeting, Wall Street ends slightly lower, Gold retreats, Oil rises but ends week lower on demand fears despite Mideast tensions-June 15th, 2019

Market Roundup

• Trump blames Iran for tanker attacks, fears of confrontation rise

• US May Retail Sales MM, 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, -0.2% previous

• US May Retail Control, 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous

• US May Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM, 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous

• US May Industrial Production MM, 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous

• US May Manufacturing Output MM, 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous

• U.S. Business inventories rebound; sales fall

• Gold retreats on robust U.S. retail sales data, but holds at 14-month peak

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• No major economic events are scheduled

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• June 17 18:30 Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada Lawrence Schembri speaks in Ottawa

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after encouraging retail sales data for May released ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week eased fears that the U.S. economy is slowing sharply. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.5% last month, just below economists’ expectations of a 0.6% gain. Data for April was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3%, instead of dropping 0.2% as previously reported. The euro was down 0.61 percent at $1.1207. The dollar index against a basket of currencies was last 97.35, up 0.53% on the day and the highest since June 3.The dollar has recovered in the last week from a weak start to June, as investors consider whether expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have gotten too far-fetched relative to the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1276  (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1345 (June 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1215 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (50 % retracement level).

GBP/USD: The British pound fell against dollar on Friday, as investors trimmed their positions after Brexiteer Boris Johnson moved closer to becoming the next prime minister. terling has fallen in recent weeks as the contest to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May heats up.Investors are concerned that May's successor will lead Britain towards a no-deal Brexit, and they worry about how little time whoever takes over will have to try and renegotiate May's withdrawal agreement with Brussels. The European Union has said the deal is not up for renegotiation before Britain is scheduled to exit the bloc on Oct. 31. The pound slipped 0.68% on Friday to $1.2584. The pound hit a five-month low of $1.2560 at the end of May but has since recovered slightly. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2662 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2758 (June 12th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2576 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as U.S. data suggesting a pick-up in consumer spending boosted the greenback. The decline for the loonie also weakened as global stocks   were pressured by more signs of slowdown in Chinese industry and as the long-feared hit to global growth from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war crystallized in slashed sales forecast from chipmaker Broadcom. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of major currencies after encouraging U.S. retail sales data for May eased fears that the U.S. economy is slowing sharply, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3413 to the greenback, or 74.55 U.S. cents, its biggest decline since March 6.The currency, which fell 1.1% for the week, touched its weakest level since June 6 at 1.3424. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3423 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3450 (June 4th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3364 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3323 (5 DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday, as upbeat U.S. retail sales   eased fears of slowing US economy. Robust U.S. retail sales in May suggested a pickup in consumer spending that could ease fears the economy was slowing down sharply in the second quarter. The data has "dispelled the need for an immediate Fed cut. Recent soft U.S. economic readings have boosted expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Policymakers are scheduled to meet June 18-19, with financial markets pricing in at least two rate cuts by year-end. The dollar was 0.17 percent  higher versus the Japanese yen at 108.55. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.00 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.27 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.32 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.46 (Lower Bollinger Band). 

Equities Recap

Trade-sensitive technology stocks led losses in European markets on Friday after U.S. chipmaker Broadcom's sales warning and disappointing industrial data out of China came as the clearest signs yet of the damage trade war may do to global growth.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.31 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.60 percent, and France’s CAC finished the down by 0.23 percent.

U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, with investors cautious going into next week's Federal Reserve meeting, while a warning from Broadcom AVGO.O of a broad weakening in global demand weighed on chipmakers.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.17 percent, S&P 500 ended down 0.16 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.51 percent.

Treasuries Recap

Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, flattening the yield curve, after solid data subdued investor fears of rapid economic decline in the second quarter and decreased expectations the Federal Reserve would cut rates at its meeting next week.

The two-year yield, which moves with investor expectations of changes to interest rates, was 1.9 basis points higher to trade at 1.849%. At the long end, the 30-year yield   was down 1.2 basis points to 2.590%.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices retreated on Friday as upbeat U.S. retail sales somewhat eased fears that the economy was slowing down in the second quarter.

Spot gold dipped 0.2% to $1,339.49 per ounce as of 1:55 p.m. EDT (1755 GMT). Prices rose to a high of $1,358.04, last touched on April 11, 2018.U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher to $1,344.50 per ounce.

Oil rose about 1% on Friday after attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman this week raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, but prices remained on track for a weekly loss on fears that trade disputes will dent global oil demand.

Brent futures   settled 70 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $62.01 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $52.51.
 

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