Market Roundup
•EU CPI, n.s.a 126.04 ,126.10 forecast,125.30 previous
•EU Apr CPI (MoM)0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.8% previous
•EU Apr CPI (YoY) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
• EU Apr CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 2.3%,2.3% previous
• EU Apr Core CPI (MoM) 0.7% ,0.7% forecast,1.1% previous
• EU Apr HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY)2.8%,2.8% forecast,3.1% previous
• EU Apr CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.6%,0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Mar Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 24.19B previous
•12:30 Canada Mar Foreign Securities Purchases 3.51B forecast,-8.78B previous
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM)0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)137.7K previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 496 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 603 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Friday as investors looked forward for some clarity on the path for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank beyond June. The policy outlook for major central banks has turned a little complicated. Multiple ECB policymakers have indicated a June cut, but sounded cautious on the need for future cuts, while recent encouraging U.S. economic data haven't seen Federal Reserve policymakers openly shift views about rate cut timing. Euro zone policymakers have increased confidence that inflation will ease back to target next year due to easing price pressures, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Friday. The euro was last down 0.2% at $1.084, but still set for a weekly gain of 0.7%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0901 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0940(21st Mar).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0835 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0768(50% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was on track for a weekly gain versus the dollar on Friday, as currency traders look ahead to key data releases next week that could point to how quickly the Bank of England may cut interest rates.The pound edged down 0.1% on the day to $1.2656 , but was on track for a weekly gain of 1%. Against the euro, it gained 0.1% to 85.70 pence .Data this week showed that British wages grew by more than expected in the first three months of the year, but other figures suggested the labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat.Closely-watched consumer price inflation data is due out on Wednesday, while 'flash' PMI data on British business activity will follow the next day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2701(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2626(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2558 ( 50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as market speculation continues to swirl about the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts amid signs of cooling inflation and a softening U.S. economy.Data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose more slowly than expected in April, but various policymakers have given little away on when rates may fall, limiting the dollar's declines this week. Futures markets are currently pricing in 47 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of this year. The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six peers - was up 0.2% on Friday at 104.74, but was still on track for around a half-percentage-point weekly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9098 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9128 (April 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9033 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9984(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped against yen on Friday but recovered most the ground as dollar rebounded after falling on weaker US inflation . The dollar dropped 1% against the yen on Wednesday after the data and was down a further 0.05% on Thursday at 154.80. The Japanese currency has fallen around 9.5% this year as the Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy loose while higher Fed interest rates have drawn money towards U.S. bonds and the dollar. The yen has been particularly sensitive to any widening or closing of the interest rate differential. Markets will now focus on several Fed officials expected to speak through the day, including Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker and Michael Barr. Strong resistance can be seen at 156.32(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.79(May 14th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.54(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 153.00(50% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Friday, dragged by declines in technology and industrials stocks, with investors looking forward to euro zone inflation data for some clarity on the path for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank beyond June.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.48 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track for a second consecutive weekly gain on Friday due to improved interest rate cut expectations, providing support to silver and platinum, which are up 5.6% and 6.3%, respectively, this week.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,387.85 per ounce by 1141 GMT. Bullion prices are up 1% so far this week after hitting a one-month high on Thursday.
Oil steadied on Friday, with global benchmark Brent heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks, as economic indicators from big consumers China and the United States bolstered hopes for higher demand.
Brent crude oil was down 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $83.14 a barrel by 1133 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.06.
