UK retail sales strong but not that strong

The CBI Distributive Trades survey will give the first information on retail sales in (early) June.

The survey makes comparisons with the same month a year earlier and so the balances are heavily influenced by the variable timing of Easter. 

With the survey being held early in the month, the y/y comparison in the April 2015 survey should have captured the strength of the 2015 weekend but not the 2014 one so boosting the reported yearly sales increase. 

However, the balance actually weakened from 18 to 12 in April and then, even more surprising, it surged to 51 in May. We can only assume that for some reason surveyrespondents were making rather loose timing comparisons. 

Whatever the explanation, the reading of 51 is far above the long term average and looks unsustainable. Thus, despite the very strong consumer fundamentals (high consumer confidence, rising real income) we expect the balance to fall sharply in June.