Russia’s retail sales growth likely improved in March

In March, Russia’s consumer consumption indicated just a small sign of recovery as leading indicators directed  towards slowing sentiment regarding overall economic condition and private financial condition. The real purchasing power is pushed to the downside as the push to adjust wages in public and private sectors are still weaker than inflation, noted Societe Generale.

Non-food inflation reached 8.1% y/y, whereas food inflation reached 5.5% y/y. The dichotomy between the two signifies that the outlook has recovered for renewed demand for essential products. Hence, food purchases are expected to have reached bottom in seasonally adjusted terms in January and February, and are likely to have improved by 0.1%-0.2% m/m sa in March, according to Societe Generale.

“Retail sales growth will likely improve slightly to -5.4% in yoy terms versus -5.9% yoy in February, corresponding to 7.4% mom nsa growth in the retail turnover – but still a soft spot in general”, added Societe Generale.